This country is facing a retail crash that will make the housing crash look small, says McDuffie “Mac” Nichols, who grew up in Charlotte and is a South Meck alum. He’s talking to the N.C. State Urban Design conference in Raleigh.
“The credit crisis on housing is nothing compared to what’s coming up this summer over commercial loans,” he says. A slew of loans for commercial development are all coming due this summer. And the projects are failed. “Every mixed-use category is in distress,” he said.
The underlying problem: The U.S. has built way, way more retail space than we need. In the U.S. we now have 20 square feet of retail space per person, he says. Compare that to Great Britain,with 2.5 square feet per person. That one drew audible gasps and an undercurrent of aghast comment from the crowd.
One-third of all enclosed shopping malls in this country are obsolete, he says. Nichols, who now lives in the Washington area, grew up in Charlotte and graduated from South Meck. (He’s among the consultants the City of Charlotte has hired in recent years to study Eastland Mall.)
The challenge will be what in the world you do with all those dead retail sites – vast surface parking lots with a building in the middle. That will be one huge urban design challenge of the next decade.
Other needs he’s citing for economically resilient cities:
– strong, high-quality public education.
– much better transit networks, which will reduce the cost of development if you don’t have to spend so much for parking. (See my op-ed today on “How we love/hate our parking lots“).
2:25 p.m – More from Mac Nichols (he’s great): He advises designers/consultants to always say “Parking will be an issue,” because A) They’ll be right, and B) Everyone will be forewarned, because parking is going to be an issue everywhere, for a long time. But, he tells the crowd of designers, make parking work for you.
Don’t overbuild just because someone loves an idea, he says.
“Economics is the foundation of design solutions.” You’ve got to understand the underlying economics. Otherwise it’s like designing a landscape without understanding the topography.”